In the grand spectacle of global elections that is set to unfold this year, an unsettling revelation takes center stage: the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) latest “Global Risks Report 2024” spotlights artificial intelligence (AI) as the chief disruptor of electoral outcomes. Released this Wednesday, the report positions AI-derived misinformation and disinformation at the forefront of concerns, surpassing traditional perils like climate change, war, and economic instability.

Carolina Klint, Chief Commercial Officer for Europe at consultancy Marsh McLennan, a collaborator on the report, warns of AI’s unprecedented potential to shape the opinions of vast voter populations. “AI can build out models for influencing large populations of voters in a way that we haven’t seen before,” she reveals, emphasizing the pivotal importance of closely monitoring its impact.

Peering into the future, the risk landscape for the next decade unfolds as a tapestry woven with threads of extreme weather conditions and pivotal shifts in the political world order. Two-thirds of the surveyed experts anticipate the emergence of a new multipolar or fragmented world. The report, a collaborative effort with Zurich Insurance Group, gathered insights from over 1,400 global risk experts, policymakers, and industry leaders in September 2023.

The combined risks, as outlined by the report, are described as “stretching the world’s adaptative capacity to its limit.” The authors urge global leaders to prioritize collaboration and establish guardrails to navigate the treacherous terrain of emerging risks.

Saadia Zahidi, WEF’s Managing Director, emphasizes the urgency for world leaders to address short-term crises while laying the groundwork for a resilient, sustainable, and inclusive future. She states, “An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks – including misinformation and disinformation – to propagate.”

The top 10 global risks for the next two years, in order, include misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber insecurity, and interstate armed conflict. Additionally, lack of economic opportunity, inflation, involuntary migration, economic downturn, and pollution make the list.

Looking further into the horizon, the most likely risks over the next decade encompass extreme weather events, critical changes to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and misinformation and disinformation. Adverse outcomes from AI technologies also feature as a longer-term concern.

Carolina Klint, echoing the sentiments in the report, foresees that artificial intelligence breakthroughs will dramatically reshape the risk outlook for organizations. She underscores the challenges companies face in navigating supply chains complicated by geopolitics, climate change, and cyber threats. Building resilience at organizational, country, and international levels, coupled with increased cooperation between the public and private sectors, becomes paramount to traverse this swiftly evolving risk landscape.

As global leaders prepare to convene in Davos, Switzerland for WEF’s annual summit next week, the report injects a sense of urgency into discussions around global issues. Titled “Rebuilding Trust,” the summit will address ongoing conflicts, economic concerns, and the ever-present influence of technology on the world stage.

This report unfolds against the backdrop of a historic year of elections, with Taiwan kickstarting the electoral fervor this weekend, followed by significant elections in the U.S., India, Russia, South Africa, and Mexico. A separate 2024 global risks report by Eurasia Group places the upcoming U.S. election as its top risk for the year, with “ungoverned AI” ranking among the top five.

Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group, underscores the far-reaching repercussions of the U.S. election outcome, placing it ahead of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas in terms of risk. As the world stands at the crossroads of pivotal elections and technological disruptions, the WEF’s report serves as a clarion call for global leaders to navigate the intricate challenges of our time with foresight and collaborative action.

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